Tribunal Outcome Predictor
See what tribunal outcomes look like for cases similar to yours.
CaseIntel shows you the landscape. Always consult a solicitor before deciding whether to proceed to tribunal.
CaseIntel is a benchmarking service based on publicly available Employment Tribunal decisions published on GOV.UK. We provide evidence and context — not advice. Always consult a qualified employment solicitor before making any decision about your case.
What does an Employment Tribunal outcome depend on?
Employment Tribunal outcomes are rarely driven by a single fact. Judges weigh the legal claim, whether the employer followed a fair procedure, the quality of documentary evidence, the credibility of witnesses, length of service, financial loss and the claimant's efforts to mitigate. The interaction between these factors — not any one of them in isolation — shapes the likely outcome.
That is why generic tribunal success rates are a poor guide to an individual claim. Cases with similar labels can be decided very differently depending on their facts. Our unfair dismissal, constructive dismissal and workplace discrimination guides explain the tests tribunals actually apply.
Why two apparently similar claims can produce different outcomes
Tribunals are fact-sensitive. Two dismissals that look similar on paper can be decided very differently because of the paper trail behind them: a properly documented investigation, a consistently applied policy, a credible comparator, a timely appeal. The law is the same — the evidence is not.
Predicting an outcome, then, is really about identifying which previously decided cases share the most meaningful characteristics with a claim and what those decisions collectively suggest.
Predicting outcomes is about probabilities, not certainty
No credible tool — and no experienced employment lawyer — will guarantee a tribunal outcome. What evidence-based prediction can do is narrow the range: identifying the likely range of compensation, the probability of a claim succeeding on comparable facts, and the factors most likely to shift the result up or down.
That probabilistic view is exactly what is most useful in practice — for deciding whether to litigate, negotiate a settlement or walk away.
How judges assess evidence rather than allegations
Tribunals decide on the balance of probabilities, using the evidence in front of them. Allegations — however strongly felt — carry limited weight without documentary support. Contemporaneous emails, notes, policies, appraisals and medical evidence are consistently the most persuasive material.
A realistic outcome prediction reflects the strength of the evidence, not the strength of feeling.
Why comparable decisions are more informative than headline statistics
National tribunal statistics describe the system as a whole. They combine thousands of very different claim types, employers, sectors and evidence profiles. They cannot answer the question that matters most to an individual claimant: "what is likely to happen in a case like mine?"
CaseIntel's Outcome Predictor answers that question by benchmarking your circumstances against genuinely comparable published Employment Tribunal decisions. The underlying evidence base is set out in our Employment Tribunal Statistics 2026 report, and the surrounding process is explained in the Employment Tribunal timeline and compensation guides.
Why legal advice and benchmarking complement each other
An employment solicitor advises on the law, procedure and strategy of a specific claim. Evidence-based benchmarking shows how historically comparable cases have actually been decided. Together, they support better decisions — on whether to pursue a claim, accept a settlement offer or continue negotiating. CaseIntel's Claim Success Checker and Settlement Offer Checker sit alongside this predictor for that reason.
Frequently asked questions
Common questions about predicting Employment Tribunal outcomes.